Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-29 212.985393 258.168119 313.887652 388.830127 488.844505 6.204937e+02 8.117600e+02
2025-07-06 157.130417 207.499136 277.371269 385.095981 554.311250 8.241361e+02 1.321002e+03
2025-07-13 135.884668 191.393956 275.737356 421.135726 684.456455 1.187810e+03 2.377195e+03
2025-07-20 120.830043 178.895715 273.714324 453.001627 820.795731 1.655029e+03 4.218759e+03
2025-07-27 108.556081 167.281903 268.989363 476.980391 953.760193 2.227221e+03 7.416610e+03
2025-08-03 97.876213 155.809484 261.138358 491.413062 1074.131304 2.892538e+03 1.293739e+04
2025-08-10 88.226997 144.199640 250.104554 495.054470 1171.031813 3.610092e+03 2.224211e+04
2025-08-17 79.045884 131.857225 234.948081 484.377061 1223.845974 4.253378e+03 3.627636e+04
2025-08-24 71.221956 120.871189 220.400409 470.809767 1262.202684 4.915278e+03 5.974196e+04
2025-08-31 64.580240 111.241808 206.969325 456.275242 1291.182741 5.608148e+03 1.010255e+05
2025-09-07 63.108095 111.553275 215.055597 501.816235 1571.111235 8.499700e+03 4.276293e+05
2025-09-14 59.132876 106.222245 209.427769 506.966739 1698.915610 1.079098e+04 1.621219e+06
2025-09-21 56.092130 102.652817 207.782048 525.534589 1915.651709 1.508464e+04 3.300308e+07
2025-09-28 52.121941 96.628817 199.237568 519.996713 2017.209323 1.887342e+04 NaN
2025-10-05 51.267056 97.265098 207.372257 573.577830 2508.525467 3.399138e+04 NaN
2025-10-12 50.055743 96.926936 212.958763 621.444811 3054.040323 6.301766e+04 NaN
2025-10-19 48.422050 95.394878 215.059288 657.756117 3598.932354 1.173082e+05 NaN
2025-10-26 46.427577 92.762364 213.618828 679.729183 4087.815066 2.148296e+05 NaN
2025-11-02 44.128206 89.133949 208.701188 685.286790 4454.962126 3.729875e+05 NaN
2025-11-09 41.458615 84.330412 199.589239 669.006291 4583.321695 5.514580e+05 NaN
2025-11-16 38.925296 79.633864 190.152543 648.388366 4644.286150 7.911059e+05 NaN
2025-11-23 36.587770 75.221396 180.992354 626.387437 4666.405373 1.122129e+06 NaN
2025-11-30 36.519668 76.511033 189.605154 695.621306 6086.055036 1.146634e+07 NaN